Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe


SEATTLE, April 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Today, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released the following statement:

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An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 7 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute’s lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the “mean” or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days and ventilator need are correct. IHME regrets the data upload error.

The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage and projected deaths on a daily basis.

Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.

Location Mean Lower Upper

Austria 385 238 770

Belgium 3546 2024 6232

Bulgaria 303 79 1146

Croatia 166 49 854

Cyprus 54 16 131

Czechia 411 120 1704

Denmark 529 242 1279

Estonia 484 51 2071

Finland 225 56 721

France 15058 9401 27727

Germany 8802 2255 23727

Greece 457 155 1141

Hungary 477 104 1686

Ireland 401 208 626

Italy 20300 18531 22824

Latvia 125 6 858

Lithuania 104 27 445

Luxembourg 69 41 191

Malta 19 1 112

Netherlands 5808 2358 19173

Norway 669 164 1104

Poland 1953 392 6504

Portugal 471 348 765

Romania 804 267 2541

Slovakia 251 13 2015

Slovenia 104 43 424

Spain 19209 14605 30616

Sweden 4182 801 4724

United Kingdom 66314 14573 219211

Contact: media@healthdata.org [mailto:media@healthdata.org] For Italy: Gianluca Giansante, Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com [mailto:Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com], +39 3409017753 Orsola Randi, orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com [mailto:orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com], +39 3393273672 For Spain: Andrea Joseph, andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com [mailto:andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com], +54 91159790368 For UK and other European nations: Oliver Courtney, oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com [mailto:oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com], +44 7815731889 Jon Date, jon.date@digacommunications.com [mailto:jon.date@digacommunications.com], +44 7533011983

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Web site: http://healthdata.org//

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